Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction — Tetlock and Gardner

In Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction authors Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner discuss the characteristics of high-performing prediction experts from the

Philip Tetlock did a famous 2005 study which showed most ‘experts' predicted the future only slightly better than chance. But he found while famous pundits sucked balls at prediction, some people were actually pretty amazing at it (including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer). So he sat down to figure out what they had in common.

This book focuses on selecting for and training for predictive ability based on research and the people surfaced in a very large government-funded forecasting tournament called ‘The Good Judgment Project’ which got tens of thousands of participants.

“Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are ‘superforecasters’“

If you’re a psychic and want to discuss your ability in public without referring to psi I highly recommend quoting this book and describing yourself as a superforecaster. Might not work for mediums but certainly efficient for claircognizance.